By Daniel Reedy:
In what figures to be another rebuilding year for the Athletics, Oakland is expected to struggle as it battles in one of the more formidable divisions in baseball. Between Texas, Houston and Seattle’s explosive offenses (and Mike Trout in Los Angeles), the A’s will have to compete while taking the field with what projects to be one of the weakest lineups in the league. Oakland enters the season with an inexperienced rotation made up entirely of pitchers younger than 28. The best asset the A’s boast figures to be the bullpen which has four players with closing experience. In order to have even have a shot at the postseason or any amount of success in 2017, Oakland will need rapid development from its youngsters and at least a couple career seasons from veterans.
On the mound
While Sonny Gray continues to heal from a shoulder injury, Kendall Graveman was named the opening day starter. Besides Gray, Graveman is the only A’s starter to enter the 2017 season with more than a year of experience. After earning his first start in the major leagues in 2015, Graveman is 16-20 with a 4.10 ERA in 51 career starts. Although his ERA increased, Graveman’s WHIP and K/BB ratio improved in 2016.
Gray has been the team’s ace in previous seasons, but his repeated trips to the DL last season and somber performance of 5-11, 5.69 ERA leave many in Oakland worried. If he can get healthy and return to his previous form when he recorded a 33-20 record with a 2.87 ERA over 74 starts from 2013-15, the A’s will have a much better rotation — or at least a valuable trade chip come July.
One of the bright spots from last season’s 93-loss campaign was 6-foot-5, 245-pound lefty Sean Manaea. The rookie finished with a 3.86 ERA, good for 24th in the AL among starters with at least 21 starts. Per FanGraphs, batters swung and missed on 11 percent of pitches thrown by Manaea last year, placing him in the 91st percentile in the majors.
Young arms Jharel Cotton and Andrew Triggs round out the rotation, entering Opening Day with just 11 starts between the two of them. Cotton had a strong 2016 in AAA after coming over in the Reddick deal, posting a 2.45 ERA and went 1-1 with a 2.15 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. Triggs was less impressive, posting a 4.31 ERA but had a 4.23 K/BB ratio. Had he thrown enough innings to qualify among the leaders, that ratio would have topped Corey Kluber, Jon Lester and Chris Archer.
The A’s elected to allocate extra roster spots to relievers, keeping the bullpen stocked with eight arms.
As previously mentioned, the A’s possess four one-time closers: Ryan Madson (Phillies and A’s), John Axford (Brewers and Rockies), Santiago Casilla (Giants) and Sean Doolittle (A’s). The four have a combined 389 career saves.
Right hander Ryan Dull threw well for Oakland last season, appearing in 70 games for the As with a 2.42 ERA and a 4.87 K/BB rate.
The A’s No.5 prospect Frankie Montas made the 25-man roster, presumably in a long-reliever role, joining Daniel Coulombe and veteran Liam Hendricks.
Manager Bob Melvin has been adamant about using a closer-by-committee strategy, but a more conventional method may be employed if Oakland is able to surprise and string some wins together.
In the outfield
Oakland will likely start two 5-foot-10, 195-pound outfielders with the last name Davis. The A’s home run leader from last season, Khris Davis, figures to be one of the top power hitters in the league again after blasting 42 bombs in 2016, good for third in the MLB. Davis also knocked in 102 RBIs, the first Athletics player since Frank Thomas in 2006 to eclipse the century mark.
The other Davis, Rajai, returns to the A’s after spending 2011-16 with Toronto, Detroit and Cleveland, hitting .258 with 143 stolen bases since he left Oakland. The speedy Davis enters 2017 with a 162-game average of 49 steals to go with a modest career slash line of .267/.314/.387.
Oakland is paying $11 million for journeyman outfielder Matt Joyce who has never played more than 141 games, batted above .280, hit 20 HRs or topped 75 RBIs in a season. Joyce is expected to platoon in the outfield this year.
Mark Canha figures to split time between the outfield and first base. He played in just 16 games last season after batting .254 with 16 HRs and 70 RBIs the season before. Canha closed out the 2015 campaign with a .280/.338/.474 line from August through the end of the season.
Around the diamond
Stephen Vogt will again be the primary backstop for Oakland and enters 2017 with back-to-back all star appearances. He finished spring training with a .265/.321/.388 line. Vogt is solid enough defensively as the A’s allowed the 10th least stolen bases and ranked 15th in least passed balls in 2016.
The DH and corner-infield spots will likely involve plenty of rotation throughout the season, but are likely to most often feature Yonder Alonso, Trevor Plouffe and Ryon Healy.
Alonso made $2.65 million last year and is set to make $4 million in 2017, but will need to greatly improve from his 2016 numbers after hitting .253 with just 7 home runs. As a members of the Padres, Alonso averaged .282 in 2015 and put up his biggest numbers in 2012 when he played 155 games and finished with .273/.348/.393.
The A’s signed Plouffe for $7.25 million with the expectation that he can boost the middle of the order. Plouffe spent seven years in Minnesota with a 162-game average of 22 HRs and 80 RBIs with a .247.
Healy is the youngest of the three but may offer the most potential. At 6 foot 4 and 230 pounds, Healy hit .305 with 13 bombs in 72 games last season and swatted 5 homers in 23 games this spring. Alonso and Plouffe also hit well in the preseason, batting .389 and .370, respectively. The A’s will need power from these three so that Khris Davis isn’t the only source of pop.
Second baseman Jed Lowrie and shortstop Marcus Semien return as the A’s starting middle infielders. Lowrie is an average defender but his bat leaves much to be desired in a division that owns three of the top-hitting second basemen in the league: Jose Altuve, Robinson Cano and Rougned Odor. Lowrie is a career .258 hitter who hopes to regain his 2013 form in which he hit .290 with 80 runs and 75 RBIs. Semien has never been even a good defender (tied for the most errors among shortstops), but quietly hit 27 homers, scored 72 runs and finished with 75 RBIs and 10 steals. Not bad for an often No. 9 hitter.
Growing in the fields
Assuming the A’s are out of contention by mid-summer, a new crop of Athletics could showcase the future for Oakland. The No. 6 pick in the 2016 draft, A.J. Puk, is most often considered the A’s top pitching prospect. The 6-foot-7 lefty lacks ideal control but has MLB-quality velocity (mid to upper 90s fastball). If he can work out his accuracy issues and consistently throw strikes, we may see him in the starting rotation as early as next season.
Middle infielder Franklin Borreto was sent to the A’s franchise via the Josh Donaldson trade and is ranked the No. 1 overall prospect in Oakland’s farm system. He is scouted as a raw defender but has good speed and the ability hit for power and average. In 119 games in Class-AA ball, Borreto slashed .281/.340/.413 with 30 SBs.
If third baseman Matt Chapman pans out, the A’s may have their next Eric Chavez — although hopefully one with better durability. Chapman has an excellent glove and arm, ranking as the No. 1 defensive 3B prospect by MLBPipeline and packs the same power punch at the plate as Chavez. While his average has been less than impressive so far (.243 in the minor), he’s hit 64 bombs and knocked in 173 runs over 269 minor league games. Over 162 games, that’s 39 home runs and 104 RBIs. Yes, that’s spread over various farm levels, but if that power can be brought to the big league level, Oakland will certainly benefit.
While prospects rarely produce right away, infield of Borreto, Chapman, Semien and Healy would have far more power than the A’s current infield of Lowrie, Plouffe, Semien and Alonso.
On deck
The A’s are likely to be a bottom feeder again this season, posting one of the least impressive offenses in the league and an incredibly inexperienced rotation. While they share a division with the lowly Angels, the AL West boasts three teams on the playoff bubble. It would come as little surprise to see two (or even three) of these teams make the postseason. We’ll likely see Chapman and/or Barreto in the A’s lineup at some point this summer since Billy Beane is almost certainly going to pawn off one of the veterans for prospects. It’s probably another year of rebuilding, but hey, the expectations were just as low heading into the Moneyball years.